Panther’s Toothsayer: USC Upstate at High Point

📍 Setting the Stage

High Point got punched in the mouth on Wednesday night. Not clipped. Not edged. Punched. Haymakered, even.

The loss at Winthrop wasn’t just a loss. It was the Panthers’ worst Big South defeat in years and the first true conference blowout of the Huss and Clayman era. It snapped an 18 game Big South winning streak, an eight game overall streak, and a five game run against Winthrop.

The game was effectively over by halftime.

We predicted the loss. We did not predict that.

And while there’s no reason to panic, there is reason to pause. Some issues that have lingered since the Gardner Webb game finally caught up to High Point in Rock Hill:

• Open perimeter shots

• No answer for elite post play

• Poor defensive rebounding

• And suddenly… no shooting

The Panthers have built their identity on spacing, efficiency, and depth over the past three seasons. Lately, that identity has cracked. The post Cam Fletcher offense has dipped sharply, shooting has vanished from both deep and the charity stripe, and questions that once felt nitpicky now feel louder.

Saturday isn’t about standings. It’s about response.

Because if High Point doesn’t bounce back at home, and convincingly, there may start to be some seismic tremors among the Panther faithful about this roster and coaching staff. 

Movement on the Richter scale, if you will.

🗡️ Opponent Overview — USC Upstate

USC Upstate was picked last in the preseason poll. They didn’t listen.

Marty Richter’s Spartans have been plucky, physical, and far more competitive than expected. They return the most production in the league, play fast, block shots at an elite rate, and have already surprised multiple teams with their effort and cohesion.

They are:

• 9–10 overall

• Improved across the board

• Dangerous if you let frustration creep in

Upstate isn’t coming to High Point with pressure.They’re coming with belief and competence.

🧱 Team Identity — What USC Upstate Is

USC Upstate is a fascinating contradiction.

They are excellent at contesting shots, both inside and out, yet their defensive efficiency sits in the middle of the pack because they struggle to finish possessions.

They:

• Run shooters off the line (Top 65 opponent 3PT%)

• Alter shots at the rim with elite shot blocking

• Force tough first looks

• Play at a fast tempo that inflates possession count

• Foul too much

• Rebound too little on the defensive glass

  
  

In short: They are great at forcing misses. They are inconsistent at ending plays.

Offensively, Richter leans into a “next man” philosophy:

• High ball movement

• Balanced scoring

• Rim pressure first

• Pace over precision - including at the FT line where they’ve been bad

They don’t have a superstar in the league, but they do have a system in place that makes teams uncomfortable.

🧩 Key Spartans to Know

⭐ Mason Bendinger (6’4 Jr G) — The Bucket Getter

The Spartans’ leading scorer and best pure shot maker. He can score in bunches if allowed to get comfortable.

HPU Key: Chase him off the line and make him finish over size.

⭐ Karmani Gregory (6’1 Jr G) — The Engine

Preseason all conference pick and primary ball handler. High usage, high responsibility.

HPU Key: Pressure him without fouling. Make him a scorer, not a distributor.

⭐ Carmelo Adkins (6’4 So G) — The Spacer

Streaky shooter who stretches the floor and punishes lazy closeouts.

HPU Key: Stay attached. No rhythm looks.

⭐ Learic Davis (6’7 Jr W) — The Disruptor

Versatile defender who fuels their strong perimeter numbers.

HPU Key: Make him defend movement. Attack him off the bounce.

⭐ Jafeth Martinez (6’9 Jr C) — The Rim Protector

Elite shot blocker and interior presence. Anchors their two point defense.

HPU Key: Pull him away from the rim and make him guard actions.

Bottom line: Upstate survives by contesting shots and playing fast. If High Point plays tight or misses early, the Spartans will hang around longer than they should.

📊 Matchup Snapshot

For High Point

• Hit threes. It’s been lacking and worrisome.

• Win the defensive and offensive rebounding battle

• Stretch Upstate’s shot blockers into space

• Reassert pace control

• Make this uncomfortable early

  
  

For USC Upstate

• Contest everything

• Block shots to create momentum

• Turn misses into transition

• Let frustration do the work for them

• Keep it close into the second half

🧠 Coaching Context

This is where Flynn Clayman earns his keep.

After the Winthrop loss, Clayman was blunt: the Panthers had been “cruising for a bruising.” They got one. He also emphasized something important: this group has responded before.

Last season, High Point lost its fourth conference game on the road in a tough environment. What followed was a historic run that ended with both the regular season and tournament championships.

There’s every chance to do that again…

But this season presents new variables:

• Post-Cam offensive efficiency has dropped to roughly 108 (about 188th nationally)

• The shooting slump is no longer a one game anomaly

• Defensive discipline has slipped without turnovers to cover it up

On the other side, Marty Richter coaches with house money. His team plays free, fast, and fearless, and if this game tightens, pressure shifts squarely to the home sideline.

This isn’t about schemes. It’s about response to adversity.

🗝️ Keys for High Point

1️⃣ Make shots, especially from three and the line

2️⃣ Finish defensive possessions with rebounds and be assertive on the offensive glass

3️⃣ Attack shot blockers with spacing, not fear

4️⃣ Get easy baskets early to reset confidence

5️⃣ Play with urgency, not panic

If High Point defends, rebounds, and shoots even normally, this should tilt quickly.

🤔 Points for Pondering

• High Point has struggled badly from three in conference play

• Free throw efficiency has dipped, further highlighting shooting issues

• Defensive rebounding remains a season-long problem

• USC Upstate contests shots well but bleeds second chances

• The Qubein Center will have students back. Can it become a feared and ferocious environment again?

🔮 Toothsayer’s Take

Hat tip to Big South Hoops Hub, because this is a Richter Scale game.

Not because USC Upstate is better. They’re simply not.Nor because Marty Richter is the focal point.

It’s because High Point is sitting on a fault line.

There’s been a fracture in the roster with Cam Fletcher gone. The depth is being tested. Players who should be role players are logging starter minutes. Shooting is down. The roster’s grit is being questioned.

If the Panthers come out tight, miss early, and let Upstate’s shot blocking and pace dictate terms, the noise will get louder. Questions will multiply. Even a narrow win will feel uncomfortable.

But this roster is still the best in the conference, and the team is still talented. High Point is ranked as the second best mid-major in the country by NET rating.

A Qube is a device used to detect ground motion and sound alarms for potential earthquakes. Let’s hope that inside the Qubein Center, the only signs we see are of a dominant Panthers team and the only trembles belong to other Big South fans and teams realizing this group just woke up.

I expect urgency.

I expect ball movement.

I expect regression to the mean, in a good way, for the shooting.

I expect dominance.

Prediction:High Point 91, USC Upstate 71