Panther’s Toothsayer: NJIT Highlanders
- Tyler
- Dec 5
- 6 min read
📍 Context: Back to Work
High Point walks into this one 7–2 and still sitting top-100 in most metrics… but it doesn’t feel that way after Southern Illinois.
That second half vs the Salukis was easily the most disappointing stretch of the season:
Defense gave up straight-line drives, layups, and paint touches at will.
A terrible shooting team lit up the Panthers because no one got a hand in their face
The trap/zone stopped turning people over, and there was no Plan B.
Effort, communication, and toughness dipped right when the game turned into a street fight.
HPU has had three real tests so far (Furman, UAB, SIU) and is 1–2 in those. The offense has mostly looked like a top-75 unit; the defense over the last four games has graded more like something in the 300s.
Tonight isn’t about résumé. It’s about response.
This is a get-right game that you can absolutely mess up if you mope around and don’t guard.
🔍 Opponent Snapshot: Who Is NJIT?
NJIT Highlanders
America East, picked 8th of 9
KenPom-ish range: mid-340s
3–6 with losses to Louisville, Cincinnati, Navy, Drexel, Eastern Michigan
They’re in Year 3 under Grant Billmeier, a former Seton Hall assistant known for defense and big-man development. The rebuild is slow: his first two teams finished in the 330s nationally; this one projects slightly better but still bottom-tier.
Stat profile (through 9 games):
AdjO: ~96 (bottom 20 nationally)
AdjD: ~112 (bottom 75, but better than the offense)
eFG%: 45.1% (awful)
TO% (offense): 21.0% (giveaways galore)
2P%: 41.7%
3P%: 32.8% (only mildly below average → their one semi-strength)
FT Rate (offense): 32.5 (they do get to the line)
Def OR% allowed: 37.2 (give up a ton on the glass)
Def FT Rate: 35.5 (foul-prone)
Translation:
They’re a tough, physical defensive front with just enough shooting to be annoying, but the offense is a mess.
Billmeier wants a downhill, ball-screen attack, but they don’t finish well at the rim, they cough it up, and possessions often dissolve into one guy dribbling a hole in the floor.
🧩 Highlanders to Know
⭐ #0 Sebastian Robinson (“SebRob”) – 6'3 Jr PG
Returning engine; now the primary on-ball creator.
Usage near 27–28% but extremely inefficient: poor from 3 and midrange-heavy.
Loves high ball screens and pull-ups; not a natural table-setter.
HPU key: Make him a volume chucker. Go under, show length, live with contested twos. What killed you vs SIU was straight-line drives; you can’t let this be another layup line.
⭐ #1 David Bolden – 6'0 Fr G
Freshman with juice; AEC Rookie of the Week already.
19–20% usage, ~39% from three, 87% from the line.
Quick, aggressive downhill, but also turnover-prone.
HPU key: Rob/Conrad have to sit on his right hand, take away the easy paint touches, and punish him for every loose dribble.
Clayville: pure shooter from Saint Francis; 37–38% from three last year.
Duncan: 6-4 wing who can heat up from deep.
Rogers: stretch-4 type, 43% from three on low volume.
Awad: freshman sniper type.
HPU key: SIU burned you when help rotations got late and shooters got rhythm looks. NJIT doesn’t have SIU’s athletes, but if you fall asleep they have enough shooting to hang around.
Fulton: 6-7 All-Rookie wing, elite energy and rebounding, real upside.
Arrington: 6-11 shot-blocker, still raw.
Ebonkoli (UMKC transfer): 6-8, 240, brick wall defensively, cleans glass, limited skill but physical.
Kelly: 6-8 rotation big, better than his box-score suggests.
HPU key: This is about effort. You just got bullied by SIU on second-chance points and physicality. NJIT will happily make this ugly if you let them.
🐾 High Point Check-In: Who Needs to Answer the Bell?
Overall profile (7–2):
AdjO: ~118 (top-60 offense)
AdjD: ~108 (outside top-150 and trending worse)
Last four games: defensive efficiency around 114+, which would sit in the 320s nationally if you stretched it over a season.
The offense is still doing its job. The defense is leaking oil.
Cam’Ron Fletcher
Cam has been the best player on this team and a true conference Player of the Year candidate, but SIU was one of his rougher nights:
This is a perfect “grown man” bounce-back spot. When Cam plays like the best athlete on the floor and owns the boards, NJIT doesn’t have an answer.
Conrad Martinez
Conrad’s SIU tape is going to sting, especially that last possession. But the Spanish guard has been tremendous otherwise while repping the purple and white.
He’s too good and too experienced to string two of those together. Against NJIT’s shaky ball pressure and so-so athletes, this is his chance to re-establish command: organize the offense, pick on mismatches, and be the first line of resistance defensively.
🧠 Coaching Lens: Clayman’s Adjustment Game
The SIU loss wasn’t just on the players. Clayman’s trap/zone has been a weapon all year, but when SIU solved it, there wasn’t much of a counter:
Late in the second half, High Point stayed aggressive even as rotations got slower and fouls piled up.
There wasn’t enough toggling between looks (straight man, softer pressure, more drop) to protect the rim and rebound.
Tonight is a low-stakes but important test for Clayman’s in-game flexibility:
Can he pull back the press when it’s not generating chaos?
Can he trust Cam/Aquino in more conservative ball-screen coverages and force NJIT to make jumpers over a set half-court?
Can he use this game to sharpen defensive fundamentals, not just scheme?
If the trap is flying and NJIT is coughing it up, great—step on their throat. If it isn’t, this can’t turn into another 40 minutes of “we die doing our thing.”
📊 Matchup on a Napkin
HPU offense vs NJIT defense
HPU: 57% eFG, 59% on 2s, 36% from 3, TO% ~13%.
NJIT: allows 50% eFG, 37% offensive rebounding, fouls a lot.
➡️ If High Point plays with normal pace and purpose, they should live in the paint, own the offensive glass, and get to the line. This is a “hang 90+ without shooting out of your mind” matchup.
NJIT offense vs HPU defense
NJIT: 45% eFG, 41.7% on 2s, 32.8% from 3, TO% 21%.
HPU: forces TOs at 22% but allows 50% eFG and 37% on the glass, fouls too much.
➡️ This is where the standard has to rise. A team this limited shouldn’t sniff 1.0 PPP in your building. If they’re north of 70 points, it says more about High Point’s focus than NJIT’s talent.
🔑 Keys for High Point
Set the Tone on Defense, Not OffenseFirst 5 minutes should be about stops, not highlights. Sit in a contained man, keep the ball in front, force late-clock jumpers. Make this game about dignity on that end.
Cam & Conrad Bounce Back
Cam: Win the glass, switch everything, play through contact.
Conrad: Organize, take care of the ball, and make SebRob work every dribble.
Clean Up the GlassNJIT will crash; HPU has to respond with 5-man rebounding. Limit them to one shot plus the occasional foul trip, and their offense collapses.
Discipline vs ShootersNo over-helping off Clayville/Duncan/Rogers/Awad. You just saw what happens when help comes late and recovery is slow.
Use This as a Defensive ResetSet a standard: hold NJIT under 0.90 PPP / 65 points. If the offense is a little clunky, fine; the goal is to come out of this saying, “We guarded.”
🔮 Toothsayer’s Take
There’s no way to sugarcoat it: the SIU second half was brutal. The defense looked soft, the scheme looked stubborn, and the body language didn’t match a team with March aspirations.
NJIT is exactly the kind of opponent that tells you who you are:
If you’re just a fun, high-flying offensive group, you’ll out-score them and move on.
If you’re a real Big South contender, you’ll choke them out defensively, play with edge, and use this as a line in the sand.
Cats don’t sulk. They stalk.
Expect a sharper, nastier version of High Point tonight—especially from Fletcher and Martinez—and a Clayman game plan that emphasizes stops over style points.
Prediction:
High Point 88, NJIT 61
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