Panther’s Toothsayer: Incarnate Word Cardinals

📍 Series & Setting

Another first-time matchup for High Point, this time against Incarnate Word (3–2) out of the Southland — and with a championship on the line. The Panthers enter the Boardwalk Battle finale at 5–1 with a chance to stabilize their non-conference momentum after a scrappy but successful win over UIC. They can also add to the trophy case with their first MTE bracket championship since the SoCal Challenge in 2022.

For UIW, this is a major early-season test and a potential turning point. The Cardinals picked up their first D1 victory of the season earlier in Daytona with a tight win over Southern Indiana. Their schedule has been feast-or-famine: they’ve taken care of business against lower-division opponents, been blown out by Colorado State, and then nearly shocked Indiana in Bloomington — falling 69–61 in a game they legitimately controlled for long stretches.

After facing either top-50 teams or sub-300 opponents, UIW now meets High Point — a team squarely in the “Goldilocks zone.” Sitting in the mid-80s on KenPom and coming off back-to-back conference titles, HPU is exactly the type of opponent third-year head coach Shane Heirman wants his Cardinals measured against.

And speaking of Heirman… The Incarnate Word head coach previously worked directly under Alan Huss at La Lumiere, eventually replacing him and winning a national championship in 2017. That means the Boardwalk Battle final isn’t just a showdown between two rising mid-majors — it’s a grudge match between two Huss Bus disciples.

🔍 Overview

Incarnate Word is built around two high-usage perimeter creators supported by rugged, high-motor role players. They play at a top-60 tempo and lean heavily into ball screens, dribble attacks, and the shot creation of:

• #2 Tahj Staveskie (Sr., 6'1") — massive usage (26.8%), elite ORtg (127.0), efficient inside & out

• #5 Davion Bailey (Gr., 6'4") — Top-5 nationally in 3PA and 3PM last season; he has the green light as soon as he enters the gym

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Despite having two studs, UIW’s efficiency swings wide. Their losses typically come when turnovers spike (they rank around 220th in ball security) and when spacing evaporates. Their defense currently rates better than their offense (~115 vs. mid-160s), but that could flip — Heirman’s teams historically score at a high level while protecting absolutely nothing.

High Point, meanwhile, has found multiple ways to win despite shooting volatility. They are:

• Top-70 nationally in tempo

• Top-65 in eFG%

• Elite finishing inside the arc (59.7% from 2)

• Still searching for consistent deep shooting (34.6% from 3)

The Panthers have yet to fully click — which makes their 5–1 start even more encouraging.

⚙️ Team Identity: UIW — Creators, Crashers & Chaos

🎯 Creators

Staveskie and Bailey combine for nearly half of UIW’s total shot attempts. Everything revolves around their ball-screens, pull-ups, and rim pressure.

🧱 Crashers

UIW crashes the offensive glass hard (23.4% OR%). Marcus Glover, Jayden Williams, and Jordan Pyke give them size, length, and activity.

🔥 Chaos

They mix coverages (drop, hedge, and some zone) and force turnovers at a solid rate (18.5%).They also foul — constantly. Their defensive FTR allowed ranks 309th nationally.

🧩 Key Cardinals

#2 Tahj Staveskie (G, Sr., 6'1")

UIW’s offensive engine — huge usage, efficient scoring, and strong paint touches.

• 26.8% usage

• 59.8% TS

• Best guard at getting two feet in the paint

#5 Davion Bailey (G, Gr., 6'4") — Nationally Elite Volume Shooter

Last season Bailey ranked Top 5 nationally in both 3-point attempts and 3-point makes. He’s again one of the highest-volume snipers in Division I.

• Shoots off the catch, movement, and pull-ups

• Must be tracked in transition

• Gravity is real even when the percentage dips

#7 Jordan Pyke (F, Jr., 6'7")

• Physical interior defender

• 7.6% block rate

• Active rebounder and finisher

#10 Harold Woods (F, Sr., 6'5")

• Glue guy, cutter, and paint finisher

• Reliable defensive presence

#8 Marcus Glover / #4 Jayden Williams

• High-motor bigs

• Generate second-chance points

• Limited floor-spacing or shot creation

📊 Tempo-Free Snapshot (Season to Date)

High Point Panthers (5–1)

AdjO: 116.5AdjD: 106.0eFG%: 56.5%3P%: 34.6%2P%: 59.7%FT%: 74.0%Tempo: 72.4 (Top 70)

Strengths

• Balanced scoring (Martin, Fletcher, Martinez, Anderson)

• Elite rim finishing

• Turnover-resistant offense (11.7% TO%)

• Flexible, effective lineups

• Dangerous in transition

Questions

• Streaky perimeter shooting (44–127 from three)

• Rebounding consistency

• Late-clock execution vs. switching schemes

Incarnate Word Cardinals (3–2)

AdjO: 109.5AdjD: 111.9eFG%: 48.9%3P%: 31.6%2P%: 49.6%FT%: 64.4%Tempo: 69.2 (Top 150)

Strengths

• Two legitimate 15–17 PPG creators

• Hard drivers and physical finishers

• Interior deterrence from Pyke/Glover

• Bench length and size

Weaknesses

• Among the worst FT-shooting teams nationally

• Turnovers snowball quickly

• Extremely foul-prone

• Multiple bottom-30 defensive rebounding performances

🧠 Coaching Notes: Shane Heirman (UIW)

• Former Alan Huss protégé (La Lumiere)

• Won a national HS championship

• Year 2 at UIW, coming off a historic 19–17 (CBI semifinal)

• Offense: modern, spacing-based, creator-dependent

• Defense: aggressive, physical, risky

Expect:

• Heavy Staveskie/Bailey ball screens

• Driving lanes for secondary lineups

• Occasional 1–3–1 or high-wall man

• Attempts to pull HPU’s bigs into space

🏀 Matchup Outlook vs. High Point

⏩ Pace Battle

Both teams want to run — HPU due to depth, UIW to mask half-court inconsistency.Over time, HPU’s decision-making should dictate tempo.

🧱 HPU Interior Advantage

Fletcher, Anderson, and Aquino provide superior rim protection, size, and offensive versatility.

🎯 HPU Perimeter vs. UIW Defense

UIW fouls on drives and hand-checks excessively.HPU should live at the line — 12+ FTAs for Fletcher/Martin/Martinez is realistic.

🪫 UIW Offensive Reliance

Limit Staveskie + Bailey to contested pull-ups, and UIW becomes far easier to guard.

🏎️ Daytona Nudge

HPU functions like a team with multiple engines; UIW is essentially a two-cylinder machine.In a race that extends into the late laps, depth wins in Daytona.

🗝️ Keys for HPU

• Control Staveskie’s rhythm — mix coverages, no clean pull-ups

• Attack the paint early — UIW fouls constantly; get into the bonus by the under-12

• Punish turnovers with pace — live-ball TOs → layups + rhythm threes

• Dominate the glass — UIW’s greatest strength vs HPU’s biggest weakness

• Let the depth cook — the 24–40 minute stretch favors HPU in every game so far

🔮 Toothsayer’s Take

UIW has two true scorers and enough length to make this competitive in stretches, but their reliance on tough shot-making, turnover issues, and foul tendencies are tough matchups against High Point’s tempo, depth, and physicality. Their offensive-rebounding strength directly targets HPU’s biggest weakness, and that alone could keep the Cardinals within striking distance.

Still, High Point’s depth, versatility, and ability to pressure ball-handlers should carry the day. If the Panthers convert at the free-throw line and survive on the glass, they separate late.

Prediction:

High Point 89, Incarnate Word 83

The Panthers take control in the second half and ride steady momentum to a Boardwalk Battle title.

Cam Fletcher — Tournament MVP.