Panther’s Toothsayer: High Point at Longwood

📍 Setting the Stage

The Big South has officially turned the page to rematch season, and High Point’s first test comes in the one building that has haunted them longer than any other.

The Panthers arrive in Farmville riding a glossy 19–4 record, but the shine is cracking. Defensive trend lines are pointing the wrong way, offensive balance is wobbling, and confidence is being propped up more by turnovers forced than stops earned.

Meanwhile, Longwood is wounded but dangerous.

The Lancers are 9–2 at home and perfect in conference play at the Joan Perry Brock Center. Coming off a frustrating loss at USC Upstate that only sharpens their urgency. If High Point is searching for answers, Longwood is searching for blood.

And history is firmly on the home side.

• High Point is 20–18 all-time vs. Longwood but 7-11 in Farmville

• No HPU win in Farmville since January 2018

• The Huss/Clayman era still lacks a winning record against the Lancers, the only Big South team where that’s the case

  
  

That can change Saturday. But nothing about the current trajectory suggests it will be easy.

⏰ Last Time Out (January 3 – Qubein Center)

High Point 80, Longwood 67

A game that looks comfortable in the box score — and absolutely was not.

• Halftime: HPU 42, Longwood 40

• Game tied early in the second half

• Decided by a 9–0 High Point run sparked by a Terry Anderson steal-and-dunk

What went right:

• Terry Anderson’s career-high 29 points (10–14 FG, 8–8 FT)

• Owen Aquino quietly dominating the interior

• High Point winning the “avalanche moment”

What went wrong (and was ignored at the time):

• Longwood controlled long stretches

• HPU struggled to create separation without transition chaos

• Longwood’s physicality bothered HPU far more than the final margin suggests

That win had some disconcerting truths that keeps showing up now.

𝌡 What’s Changed

This is where the rematch turns ominous.

1. The Defensive Trend Line Is Flashing Red

High Point’s defense has materially deteriorated since early Big South play.

• Repeated paint breakdowns

• Big men having career nights

• Poor shooting teams consistently looking confident, accurate, and deadly 

The Presbyterian game was the clearest warning yet:

• HPU was severely outshot at home

• Gave up constant paint touches

• Could not finish at the rim consistently

• Needed turnovers just to survive despite being a 17.5-point favorite

If not for forced turnovers, that game is a loss on national TV. 

2. Road Reality Check

High Point’s away defensive metrics are among the worst in the country, and the JPB amplifies every weakness:

• Slower rhythm of play

• Fewer transition whistles

• Longer scoring droughts punished harder

This will not resemble the Qubein Center environment.

3. Longwood Has a New Focal Point

In the first meeting, Elijah Tucker was a secondary piece. He is no longer that.

• Longwood is now actively feeding the post

• Tucker and Nziemi have torched opponents on the glass

• HPU’s interior rotations have been slow and foul-prone

This matchup directly attacks High Point’s current Achilles heel.

♟️ Key Matchups

🎨 Paint Control: Owen Aquino vs. Elijah Tucker / Johan Nziemi

This decides everything.

• High Point has been punished inside repeatedly

• Lancer’s bigs thrive on:

  • Second chances

  • Deep seals

  • Contact finishes

If Aquino gets into foul trouble, High Point has no proven interior safety net.

⦻ Perimeter Discipline: Redd Thompson Jr. vs. HPU Closeouts

High Point’s defensive rotations have been late and lazy.

• Thompson thrives on drive-and-kick gravity

• Longwood doesn’t need volume, just rhythm

Another “bad shooting team” having a great night would not be surprising anymore. 

⏳ Tempo Control: Rob Martin vs. Jacoi Hutchinson

This is the game within the game.

• Martin wants chaos → kill shots → 90 points

• Hutchinson wants mud → patience → 70 points

At home, Hutchinson has been far more secure with the ball. If he keeps turnovers down, Longwood dictates the game.

⁉️ The Questions Hanging Over HPU

High Point is 19–4 and 7–1 in conference.

For any other Big South team, that would speak for itself.

At High Point, it doesn’t.

These are no longer whispers — they’re unavoidable:

• 📉 Is this team getting better or worse?Trend lines and the eye test say worse.

• 🤷‍♂️ What is Vincent Brady providing on either end of the floor?His minutes are a growing mystery while more impactful players struggle to find rhythm.

• 🥸 Why isn’t Chase Johnston playing more during a shooting slump?High Point desperately needs spacing and has one of the NCAA’s most prolific shooters riding the bench.

• 🤕 Cam Fletcher’s wrist — how limited is he really?His availability may decide whether High Point has a bailout option late in the season.

🔮 Toothsayer Prediction

High Point still has the most dangerous offensive ceiling and the most talented roster in the Big South. That hasn’t changed.

What has changed:

• Their margin for error

• Their ability to survive without turnovers

• Their defensive resilience away from home

• Their elite shooting and spacing

Longwood’s goals are simple:

• Win the paint

• Keep away from any kill shots

• Make this ugly, slow, and physical

  
  

This is the most vulnerable High Point has looked all season because of:

• The defensive erosion

• The Farmville drought

• Longwood’s home dominance

• Panthers shooting variance

• High Point’s recent reliance on chaos rather than control

If High Point plays to their potential → Panthers escape Farmville with that elusive win.

If Longwood controls the glass and avoids a 10–0 burst → Lancers win outright

Prediction:

Longwood 78, High Point 70

The real question afterward may not be about the result  but whether it’s a wake-up call for the coaching staff and roster, or a wake-up call for the fans and their expectations of the season.